SA Intelligencer #67

>> Sunday, February 7, 2010

In this issue:

  • Botswana ultiumatum to Zimbabwe: withdraw envoys
  • South Africa: Role of intelligece in transtion remembered
  • Norway targeted for increased espionage
  • Climate leak "work of spy agency"
  • Ukraine and Russia trade spying charges
  • Far-reaching proposals for Russia's security apparatus
  • Belarusian government order internet providers to snoop on users
  • Syria renews intel sharing with US & UK
  • Israel defence Force is prepared for Cyber Warfare
  • Beijing bones up its cyber warefare capacity
  • Taiwan detains two agents for alleged spying for China
  • Colombia has 3000 paid civilian informants
  • Crowd sourcing of intelligence
  • CIA to report to Senate on moonlighting in corporate world allegations
  • Blair spells out annual threat assessment
  • Google cyber attacks a "wake-up" call for US, intel chief says
  • Google to enlist NSA to help ward off cyber attacks
  • Spy vs Spy

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SA Intelligencer #66

>> Sunday, January 31, 2010


In this issue:
1     MI5: China bugs and burgles Britain
2     CIA Ups Foreign Language Requirements for Top Staff
3     U.S. gives Yemen key intelligence to strike al Qaeda
4    Spain tries secret agent suspected of selling data to Russia
5     Belarusian President reshuffles security agency
5     Former Georgian President's Son Charged With Spying For Russia
6     Commentary: Intelligence in Canada: Adapt or Overhaul? – Thomas Quiggin
7     Intel literature: Defend The Realm:  The Authorized History of MI5
9    Upcoming events & conferences


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SA Intelligencer #65

>> Monday, January 25, 2010

In this issue:
US IC language & linguistic shortfalls under scrutiny
Venezuela silent as Colombia expels 2 spies
China not top priority for US spy agencies under new policy
Former Canadian envoy to Iran was covert CIA agent
Kenya Intel service figures on influx of Somali’s might have led to new citizenship guidelines
Kenya: CIA Chief in secret visit
Intel literature: Thinking articles & books

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    SA Intelligencer #64: 21 January 2010

    >> Thursday, January 21, 2010



    In this issue:
    UK: Cambridge University Library on the spy trail
    US: Dennis Blair statement to Congress
    Indian VP lecture: shaping intelligence for world of tomorrow
    India: RAW financial scams make VP furious
    Australia: Centre to shield against cyber attacks
    Intelligence tradecraft tips: Passport control easy to bypass
    Intelligence literature: New publication celebrating UK intel community's anniversary
    Calendar: Upcoming conferences: New: Aug 2010: OSINT & data mining conference

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    Fifa World Cup: A must-win for SA intelligence


    It's my sincere wish that our intelligence agencies are vigilant, operationally aware, astute and collaborating to make 2010 the best world cup ever! We owe it to our kids, our country and the African continent...(photo: our family attending the Brazil/Italy match, Confed Cup, July 2009, Pretoria),

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    SA Intelligencer #63: 17 January 2010

    >> Sunday, January 17, 2010

    The SA Intelligencer was started about 2 years ago by former Coordinator of Intelligence, Johan Mostert, to inform decision-makers and intelligence professionals in SA on new developments in the field of intelligence. It's a privilege to take over the editing and use some e-tools to get the message out there. The content is from the public domain.


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    A study of size of world intelligence industry

    >> Saturday, January 16, 2010

    Christian Hepner, a Masters student at Mercyhurst College, wrote a thesis on the Size of the World's Intelligence Industry. It sure makes some interesting reading, although I did not have the time/energy to evaluate his research methods.

    A Botswana journalist comments as follows on his findings: “Botswana's intelligence sector outstrips, in terms of expenditure and agents employed, many countries in the region and even those countries of a similar size. Botswana spends US $ 25.7 million (about BWP 169.62 million) on the intelligence community in the country, this figure might be outdated as the Directorate on Security and Intelligence have been given a budget of P 200 million. According to the study the combined total of the intelligence community, possibly including even short term spies, is pegged at 9,800 people, making it one of the biggest workforce and spenders in the continent.

    However, the other big spenders and employers are countries that have populations many times that of Botswana. For example Tanzania spends US$19.9m, Kenya US $21.2m, Namibia $US6.9 m, Ivory Coast US$ 22.3m and Ethiopia US $24.6m. In some cases Botswana's intelligence sector doubles or even triples the sizes of sectors in countries with much bigger populations. Despite the fact that it came out of a civil war only a few years ago Angola employs only 7 000 operatives. However, its expenditure stands at just over US$ 80 million.

    Nigeria is Africa's biggest spender with US $ 249 m having been expended during 2009. It is followed closely by South Africa, which leads the sub-region with US 237 m. However, the country employs only 3500 agents. Algeria leads the pack with the number of operatives standing at 12. Other countries of interest in Africa include Burundi with 2.549, Cameroon 10 000, Ghana 477, Kenya 5 000.

    Among the world's most developed nations the countries with the biggest numbers of intelligence agents are the US with 144 000 agents and spending US 75 billion and accounting for for 65 percent of the world' intelligence budget, Russia with 172 000, and spending US $3.2 billion, Syria with 25 000 and India standing at 18 000. The UK spent US$ 2.8 billion. Among themselves the worlds top 10 spenders - US, Japan, China and Russia account for 93 per cent of the total intelligence expenditure."

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    The problem with hindsight - it's perfect!

    >> Friday, January 8, 2010

    A lot has been said the last few days about fixing intelligence analysis, in view of the "Jockey Bomber". I'm afraid most of it is simplistic and does not take into account that there is bound to be intelligence failures, because that is the way it is.. We're living in an imperfect world where, when our technological tools fails, it still boils down to a mere human (analyst) who has to make decisions on whether this needle in this haystack is as relevant and important as the other one in the next haystack. Yes, analysts will miss weak and strong signals and misinterpret strong signals - because we're human and our brains are wired that way. We have to learn from this intelligence failure and introduce do-able reforms -the most important is that we should be more mindful of what we do and how we do it...
    Read here on what Mark Lowenthal says intelligence can and cannot do ..."The importance of hindsight cannot be overstated. Every investigation or commission into any lapse or failure is based to a large degree on hindsight. Hindsight not only lends false clarity to errors after the fact, it has a compelling and lingering after-effect. ...We have to accept, as Richard Betts wrote years ago, the inevitability of surprise. We ask intelligence analysts to describe the actions of people who are geographically distant and culturally remote. Worse yet, they are people. They react to emotions, to stress, to miscalculation and they sometimes make profoundly bad decisions. ...we need to differentiate between strategic surprise and tactical surprise. When surprise happens, we have to approach the necessary post-mortem with reasonable standards as to whether it was ‘knowable’ or not. "we need to remember that intelligence analysis is an intellectual process. It needs standards and guidelines but these alone will not ensure. What I am suggesting, is a recalibrating of expectations or, if you will, a lowering of expectations of what intelligence analysis can do. No one has yet come up with any methodologies, machines or thought processes that will appreciably raise the intelligence community’s batting average. But we are not going to breed more confident analysts or analytical managers by creating or holding intelligence to standards that are unrealistic. Part of the problem that intelligence now faces is symptomatic of a wider problem: the no fault standard that seems to pervade so much of our public discourse. No matter how dangerous or difficult the activity – from space exploration to estimate intelligence – the given expectation is that everything will go right all the time and that if it does not then the likely cause is misfeasance or malfeasance. we will suffer losses on occasion not because intelligence is flawed but because it is human and it is difficult. To do anything less than this is to condemn intelligence to more unnecessary pillorying because of unreasonable expectations. At that point, intelligence is not a vital part of the policy formation process, it is just a fall guy. And the only reason a fall guy exists is to take the fall."

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